Whatever the outcome is in next month’s elections, history says the stock market will likely go up.
The Wall Street Journal examined historical data and concluded that whether President Donald Trump wins another term or if Democrat Joe Biden is victorious, and if there are changes to which party controls the House and Senate, Wall Street will be OK.
According to the report, one party had complete control of both the legislative and executive branches in 45 of the 91 years from 1929 through 2019. During those 45 years, the S&P 500 went up an average of 7.45%. The index rose 30 times and fell 15 times.
When there was a split government, the S&P 500 rose by an average of 7.26% each year. It went up 29 times and fell 16 times.
With Democrat Joe Biden leading in most national polls and Republicans still in control of the Senate while Democrats control the House, there is a strong chance that there could be a split government when the new president takes office in January. And, even if Trump wins reelection, the Democrats are threatening to take over the Senate.
There could be swings in the market, as there have been this year, before and after the election. But historical numbers indicate that the stock market will survive.
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