One of the few pollsters to accurately project President Donald Trump’s presidential election in 2016 is now predicting another Trump surprise victory from support of “shy” voters, according to Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group.
“The shy Trump effect or the social desirability – that’s people’s unwillingness to express an opinion that they think will make look in some light to the person asking the question that’s not favorable,” Cahaly told Fox News’ “Fox & Friends Weekend.”
Cahaly’s polling methods are rejected as out of the mainstream, but he has been on the right side of some of the biggest election surprises with his polling methods. He is able to gather large sample sizes and to take a more true pulse of the electorate, he told host Pete Hegseth.
“The way we do it assures a little more anonymity and we use a mix of all kinds of digital platforms, as well as quick questions, to get people to participate are the keys in doing that,” Cahaly said of his secret sauce.
“It seems sort of strange to me that they haven’t learned any lessons,” he added of traditional media polling methods that have shown Democrats in far more favorable positions in elections.
In addition to Trump’s 2016 upset, Cahaly’s Trafalgar Group takes a bow for predicting Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 2018 victory over Democrat Andrew Gillum, who was famously backed by former President Barack Obama.
“They were all wrong again and we were the only ones right there, too,” Cahaly said.
Notably, the Trafalgar Group has Trump slightly ahead by almost 1 percentage point in the battleground state of Michigan, while the RealClear Politics polling average suggests Biden is up around 8 points.
Cahaly credits Black GOP senate candidate John James, who “a lot of folks who are absolutely enthralled with” because he is “coming in as the outsider” against one-term Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich. Cahaly is giving James a 1-point lead in polling where as the RealClear Politics polling average has the incumbent up over 5 points.
Also, Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer “has single-handedly created an environment” for Trump enthusiasm, according to Cahaly.
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