Democrat nominee Joe Biden is still maintaining a lead in NPR’s latest Electoral College analysis, but President Donald Trump has tightened the race some, particularly in Florida.
According to NPR’s analysis, Biden has a 268-to-169 advantage in the Electoral College, and when including states that are leaning toward the vice president, he remains just below the 270-vote threshold that is needed to win the presidency, the analysis finds.
Florida marked the biggest change, moving back from a state that was leaning Democrat to now being a toss-up state after Trump gained 4 percentage points in polling averages since the end of July.
States showing changes include:
- Florida: A new Monmouth University Survey shows Biden is up 5 points with registered voters, but an NBC/Marist poll shows it deadlocked at 48% among likely voters. The surveys showed seniors are split between the candidates after Trump won their votes by a wide margin in 2016. Biden is also underperforming with the Latino vote, the polls showed.
- Nebraska’s 2nd District: NPR’s analysis shows the district changing from a leaning-Republican area to a toss-up. Trump won the Omaha-area district by 2 points in 2016, but Democratic sections have been registering Democrats faster than Republicans have made registrations in right-leaning areas.
- Virginia and New Mexico: Both states have shifted from leaning Democrat to now being likely Democrat. In Virginia, the population of Asian Americans is continuing to grow. There are also now almost as many whites with a college degree as without. New Mexico is also trending Democrat, with 40% of voters in the state being Latino in 2016, according to exit polls. Biden is holding double-digit leads in both states, according to poll averages.
- Arizona: The state remains a toss-up, but Biden has a narrow edge. A Fox News poll has Biden up by 9 points with likely voters, and the state could start shifting to the leaning Democrat category.
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