Emerson College Poll: Biden Up Four Points With Likely Voters

Democrat nominee Joe Biden is holding a four-point lead over President Donald Trump in a new national Emerson College poll of likely voters, but undecided voters say they’d pick Trump over Biden.

The Emerson College/NewsNation poll shows Biden over Trump by 48% to 44%. Four percent said they plan to vote for someone else, and 4% said they remain undecided. Out of the people who are undecided, when forced to choose, 54% picked Trump and 46% picked Biden.

In other numbers:

  • Independent voters: Biden, 46%; 39%, Trump.
  • Undecided: Independents, 9%; Democrats, 3%; Republicans, 2%.
  • Voters aged 18-29: Biden, 56% to 33%.
  • Voters aged 30-44: Biden, 49% to 40%.
  • Voters 65 and older: Biden, 52% to 44%.
  • Voters 45-64: Trump, 56% to 40%.
  • Urban voters: Biden, 53% to 37%.
  • Suburban voters: Biden, 49% to 45%.
  • Rural voters: Trump, 56% to 36%.

The poll also showed that Republicans are far more satisfied with their choice of candidates than Democrats are:

  • 86% of Republicans said they are satisfied, 57% are very satisfied and 29% are somewhat satisfied.
  • 63% of Democrats are satisfied; 31%, very satisfied; 32%, somewhat satisfied.

A plurality of Democrats, at 45% said they plan to vote by mail, but 51% of Republicans said they plan to vote in person. Independents were split about where they plan to vote.

Members of both parties said they thought their candidates represent the ideals of their party well, with 96% of Republicans agreeing on Trump and 90% of Democrats agreeing on Biden.

Respondents were also split on whether they think the Senate should confirm Trump’s Supreme Court nominee to succeed late Justice Ruth Baden Ginsburg, with 48% saying the nominee should be confirmed now and 46% after the January inauguration. Most Republicans, at 88%, said the vote should happen now, and 82% of Democrats said it should wait.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 22-23 of 1,000 likely voters, with a 3-point margin of error.

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