Analysts: Presidential Race Likely Closer Than Polls Show

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead in the polls could continue to shrink as the election nears, Fox Business reports.

A team of analysts out of New York-based Wells Fargo Securities predict Trump will catch up to Biden’s lead in the polls following the first presidential debate.

“We think the head-to-head polling prior to even the first debate is subject to potentially significant revision after tens of millions of voters have their first chance to see the two candidates together,” the team wrote.

The group of analysts is led by Christopher Harvey. They also write that the race is likely closer than polls are revealing because the president’s “secret voters” are not accounted for.

Recent polls already indicate Biden’s lead is narrowing. According to RealClearPolitics, Biden has a 6.1% lead over Trump in the national polls. In battleground states, his lead is only 3.6%. His polling numbers are down from this summer where he led nationally by 9.3 points and 6 points in battleground states.

In 2016, Trump won the six battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

They note that Trump could gain an advantage when it comes to topics like the Supreme Court nomination, gun ownership, and the African American vote, which may not be appearing in polls. They also wrote that they see voter registration trends benefiting Trump.

A 2016 exit poll conducted by CNN found 70% of voters thought the Supreme Court was a key issue and those who said so preferred Trump over Hillary Clinton 49 to 47.

Another CNN exit poll from 2018 found 46% of voters lived in a household that owned at least one gun and voted Republican by a 61%-to-36% margin, according to the analysts. Of the 5 million Americans that became first-time gun owners during the first seven months of 2020, 40% were women.

Additionally, the analysts note that recent polls show Biden leading among African American voters by 65 points, which is down from Clinton’s 80-point margin in 2016.

Fox Business reports that the debates will give investors a chance to see how sectors and stocks will look depending on who wins the election.

Under Trump, investors should look at financials, metals, energy, and industrials, the analysts said. Under a Biden presidency, growth and tech stocks would see a boost, according to the analysts.

“Regardless of the winner we remain bullish based on COVID developments, Fed accommodation, and easy 1H21 comps,” the analysts wrote, noting that a contested election could cause a 10% selloff.

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